This is probably the greatest poster I've ever seen.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
It’s an uplifting, family-oriented underdog picture with mass appeal; it garnered critical rave, had a big box office haul and seems destined for the award.
My runner-up would be Benjamin Button, but that film seemed more divisive amongst critics (as well as audiences), and the whole Eric Roth/Forrest Gump ties might have hurt whatever chance it had.
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Oscar loves his underdogs. Mickey Rourke has been latter 2008′s golden boy (the first half of the year’s comeback was devoted to Robert Downey, Jr.), he’s winning all sorts of international awards, his triumph makes for a good story and complements the film’s narrative (owing to the real-life parallels), and honestly, it’s such a great performance that even those turned off by the hype may have a hard time snubbing him.
Runner-up is Sean Penn. But Penn hasn’t courted as much attention, partly due to the fact that it seems like he’s nominated for an award every year. I just have a gut feeling he won’t win.
Best Actress: Kate Winslet (The Reader)
This is, what, her tenth nomination? Twelfth? Something like that. I think she’ll win for this reason, and not necessarily based on the performance itself, which – although certainly very good – wasn’t that much greater (or more substantial) than the other nominees. It says a lot that people were shocked when she was nominated for this, a supporting role, instead of Reservation Road.
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
It’s a sure-fire guarantee. No one else comes close. And after the hype dies away, based on the merits of the performance alone–he still deserves the award.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (Doubt)
Everybody’s saying Penelope Cruz is a shoe-in, but I’m getting a gut feeling that this category’s going to pull a surprise.
Best Director: Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Runner-up: Danny Boyle. But I think after all the other noms Slumdog is likely to win, the best way to acknowledge Milk is through its director. I’m just having another gut feeling on this one.
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black (Milk)
Oscar loves bio pictures.
Adapted Screenplay: David Hare (The Reader)
Oscar loves Holocaust movies and movies about mentally retarded people. Since the closest we came to the latter this year was with Tropic Thunder (sadly, Ben Stiller wasn’t nominated for his movie-within-a-movie performance of Simple Jack), I think The Reader will take Oscar home.
Cinematography: The Dark Knight
The film deserved to be nominated for Best Picture, Best Screenplay and Best Director. A lot of people know this. A lot of people voting know this. And I think they’ll be more inclined to acknowledge it as a whole through its smaller category nominations.
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
I’m getting bored of justifying my reasons, especially for the smaller categories.
Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: The Dark Knight
The Joker. Two-Face. ‘Nuff said.
Music, Original Score: Benjamin Button
This is more of a personal vote than anything. I have a feeling it won’t win, but Benjamin Button was the year’s best score.
Music, Original Song: Slumdog Millionaire (“Jai Ho”)
Achievement in Sound: Wall-E
Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: Benjamin Button
Best Animated Film: Wall-E
Best Foreign Film: Waltz with Bashir
Best Documentary: Man On Wire
Short Documentary: The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
Short Animation: This Way Up
Short Film: Manon sur le bitume
Got any predictions of your own? Post ‘em below!
